Budget 2007 - What's wrong with this picture?

The image below is taken from the new budget document. Have a close look at the figures.



The average industrial wage is just over €30,000. Why is a worker on that wage benefitting least from the budget measures?

And no, I'm not just annoyed about this because I'm on the AIW myself - I genuinely don't understand the reasoning.

By the way, I noticed that during the budget debate today, the full compliment of Fine Gael TDs was in the Dáil chamber to listen to Enda Kenny's speech. Within 90 seconds of Pat Rabbitte standing up, however, all but two or three of them were gone. I don't think even they are taking this 'coalition' seriously anymore.

Labour's coalition partners: "Arrest the strikers"

According to Fine Gael Transport Spokesperson on Newstalk 106 just now, the Gardaí should have arrested the taxi drivers who lined O'Connell Street yesterday to draw attention to their grievances.

I was one of those inconvenienced by the taxi protest yesterday, and I certainly agree that it wasn't the best tactic if they wanted to gain the public's sympathy (although I'm not sure that they did) - but, come on. By "inconvenienced" I mean it added about 15-20 minutes onto my travel time. Hardly something worth arresting people over.

But of course, this is the same Fine Gael Transport Spokesperson who, a few years ago, said that the bus drivers taking part in the "no fares day" protest should have the fares deducted from their wages.

Labour people - for God's sake, what are you thinking???

Coalition still confused

For the second week running, Labour have abstained on a bill supported by their intended coalition partners.

Bertie is absolutely right when he says that if he did call an early election the "Rainbow" would have a heart attack. Who do they think they are fooling? They have no joint policy programme; they can't even agree on their own legislation, much less Government policies such as the privatisation of Aer Lingus, the erosion of neutrality, etc.

Furthermore, all indications are that if FG and Labour did manage to cobble together a Government, FG would be by far the senior partner. Have Labour ever indicated what their redline issues would be in such a coalition? Does anybody know, even Labour themselves?

I know I go on about this a lot but I'm genuinely baffled that any Labour supporter would be in favour of this agreement.

The Rainbow splits again

I see that Fine Gael and Labour have voted different ways on yet another piece of legislation going through the Dáil, this time the Strategic Infrastructure Bill. Fine Gael voted with the Government on this bill (which would make it easier for powerful interests to get planning permission for controversial projects and reduce the ordinary citizen's ability to object).

Further evidence, as if any were needed, that a vote for Labour is a vote to replace one right wing government with another.

Labour supporters - here are your coalition partners!

Fine Gael TD Phil Hogan in the Dáil today singled out trade union members as stirring up anti-immigrant sentiment. Well done Phil.

"I trust the Minister will bring forward new measures and regulations in due course arising from the partnership talks that will not only assist us in regard to the assimilation of migrant workers into our economy but will also contribute to removing some of the prejudice that has built up, particularly due to some union members in recent times ..."

How on earth can any self-respecting Labour Party member vote for a coalition like this?

More cracks in the rainbow

Last night, Sinn Féin TDs used their Private Members Time to call for a Department of Labour Affairs separate from the department that oversees enterprise, as the present system has worked to the detriment of workers whose needs have been subordinated by the government to those of their bosses.

The Labour Party, as you'd expect, supported the motion. Fine Gael didn't. They didn't even turn up for the vote.

How on earth are these two supposed to be an alternative government when they can't even agree on what sort of government they want?

I'm out of the country for a fortnight and return to find the whole country's gone bleeding mad! Allegations against this republican and that republican. It seems that my prediction, made just after the IRA statement, of an increase in black propaganda against us was even more accurate than I'd feared. The usual suspects have obviously decided that their best hope for defeating us lies in turning us against each other. We are going to have to be resolute in our determination not to let them succeed.

On other matters, Pat Rabbitte's proposal to subject EU nationals to work permits simply defies logic (except, of course, when looked at as a cynical pre-election stunt). Anyone with a brain can see that tying workers to permits increases, rather than decreases, their exploitability and therefore makes them more, not less, attractive to unscrupulous employers. The solution to the displacement of Irish workers in favour of cheaper foreign staff is proper enforcement of the laws which make it illegal to pay foreign staff less.

Has Enda Kenny commented on this proposal? One almost wonders if he has told Rabbitte that FG intend to propose restrictions on immigration, and so Rabbitte is coming out with this stuff now so that it will look like a true Labour proposal and not one forced on them by their senior coalition partners.

I notice that Labour abstained on the Criminal Justice Bill last night, despite the clear opposition to it of their Justice Spokesperson Joe Costello. Wonder why that was? Couldn't have had anything to do with the fact that Fine Gael voted for the bill, could it?

Bad and all as Fianna Fáil are, they do have one clear advantage for any potential coalition partner with the slightest ideological bent (and in Labour's case it really is the "slightest"): not having one themselves, FF are easily subject to the Tail-Wagging-Dog syndrome. Fine Gael may not be anyone's idea of a principled party but they do have a couple clear policies, at least. Pro-privatisation, for one. Anti-neutrality, for another. Ironic, isn't it, that on the only issues they can really be nailed down, their position differs strongly from Labour's?

Labour voters who think that these differences will all somehow work themselves out, and not to their own detriment, would be well advised to keep an eye on incidents like last night's abstention on the Criminal Justice Bill. I can virtually guarantee you there will be more of these between now and the general election - not to mention if FG and Labour do win enough seats to go into coalition together.

LI didn't intend to start a blog just to analyse the Sunday Tribune every week. It just happens they've had more of the stories I feel like commenting on lately.

The cover story this week is speculation that Bertie plans to call the general election next year, rather than wait for the May 2007 deadline. This will no doubt be replied to with a denial from the Taoiseach's office, but it's actually what I have suspected for several months now. Open disagreements between the coalition partners have been increasing, most recently on the building of a new terminal at Dublin Airport and Michael McDowell's proposal for a new "café-bar" licence. In addition, there are a few FF backbenchers who are very strongly opposed to McDowell's planned introduction of Anti Social Behaviour Orders - listening to the Dáil debate last week one could have been forgiven for thinking Pat Carey and John McGuinness were actually members of the opposition. McGuinness, especially; I cannot recall ever seeing a member of a Government party speak out so strongly against a Government proposition. Frankly, this doesn't look like a coalition that has two years left in it.

So what does it mean? Hard to say at this point. Obviously, one of the most important things is getting the PDs out of Government. The damage they have done is immense. I would not be in favour of Sinn Féin going into coalition with FF this time around - we will have around 10 TDs at most and I doubt FF would be as generous to us with key Ministries as they have been to the PDs. And I'm not sure there would be the numbers for FF to coalesce with those independents who'd be willing to do so. I can't see FF and FG going in together, even though you couldn't slide an envelope between their political philosophies (including the one their grandparents went to war over), and Labour have ruled out going in with FF, but there don't appear to be the numbers for them to go in with FG, or even with FG and the Greens. So it's all to play for, really.

I do think it's hilarious that Labour are willing to coalesce with the (slightly) further right of the two main parties, though. A fortnight ago in the Dáil SF introduced a Private Members motion against the privatisation of Aer Lingus. FG, predictably, opposed it; Labour supported it. What would they have done if they were in Government together when we introduced it? Or when we introduced our bill to enshrine neutrality into the Constitution, which Labour also supported and FG opposed? Over the past few years Labour have already moved further right than many in their traditional base would like; their former chief strategist Fergus Finlay openly admitted that they were courting the middle class vote because they think the trade unions, etc., aren't relevant anymore. In Government with Fine Gael they're only going to move even further right. And Sinn Féin will be there, nipping at their heels, on their left.

Incidentally, I'm somewhat neutral on the café-bar thing. I think there are a lot of bogus arguments being thrown around by both sides. Nobody in Ireland limits their drinking (during normal hours) because they can't find a place to get a drink, after all. Nor are many people going to say "Well, I could stay in this pub the whole night, but now that there's a café-bar next door I'll just go there and have a meal with my pint instead". I'm all for the idea of café-bars, actually, because I really quite like them, but I think it would be more sensible to provide incentives for existing pubs to convert, rather than opening additional establishments. I haven't thought out how you'd do that though, so please don't ask me!

The Trib was surprisingly short this week of things-to-make-me-throw-the-paper-across-the-room. My greatest outrage was at a letter to the editor suggesting that the FAI should withdraw from the Champions League next year and nominate Liverpool instead. The day they do that is the day I stop giving any money to anything having to do with Irish soccer. Fortunately it's not going to happen, but it absolutely disgusts me that an Irish person would suggest it in any case. Sure, why don't we just let England have Roy Keane and Damien Duff as well? We're probably not going to need them next year.